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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG and FC Augsburg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights