VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 0W 2D 0L across 2 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward VfB Stuttgart. A 0.50 PPG lead over Bayer Leverkusen (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 1.315 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.673 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.538. Data: 2 VfB Stuttgart games / 2 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 33%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.39 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / def 1.315 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.673 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.01) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.67x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
34%
2.93
33%
3.05
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.75
1.36
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.36 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bayer Leverkusen.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's scoring rate against Bayer Leverkusen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have VfB Stuttgart or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 0% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 3, as VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 1.31 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 33%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 100%, Bayer Leverkusen 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.