VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 4 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with 1. FC Köln managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The historical record gives VfB Stuttgart a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and 1. FC Köln 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 74% | 1. FC Köln 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.02 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / defence 0.918 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.968 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.940 / away 1.339. Data: 35 VfB Stuttgart games / 35 1. FC Köln games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 56% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 21%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Köln 4.76. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 56% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.02 / 1. FC Köln 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.009 / def 0.918 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.968 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.940 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.19
1. FC Köln xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 4 September 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 56% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 6W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.01x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.97x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.31
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.21
1.19
1. FC Köln xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
3%
35.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.19 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 18W 8D 9L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln's form line: 8W 11D 16L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (12W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 7D 8L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.49 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 80%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1. FC Köln away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.29 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.76 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 7, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 41%, 1. FC Köln 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VfB Stuttgart) and 53% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 53% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-1 hammering of 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.02 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.19 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 56% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 21%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 74%, 1. FC Köln 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.