Union Berlin 1-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.25 vs 1.25 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, SC Freiburg in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 75% and SC Freiburg 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | SC Freiburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.08 xG and SC Freiburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.207 / defence 1.183 | SC Freiburg attack 0.880 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.413. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Union Berlin games / 4 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 4.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 75% | SC Freiburg 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Union Berlin 2.08 / SC Freiburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.207 / def 1.183 | SC Freiburg attack 0.880 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.47
SC Freiburg xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 October 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg part of?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 49% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Union Berlin and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.21x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.88x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.78
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.55
1.47
SC Freiburg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
3%
32.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.47 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.25 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Union Berlin, 75% for SC Freiburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 50% (SC Freiburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Union Berlin's games and 75% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and SC Freiburg finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.08 xG and SC Freiburg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.46, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, SC Freiburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.25 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.