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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 1-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.08 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.95 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.72 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 63% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 16%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, 1. FC Heidenheim 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights