🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.45 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 47%, 1. FC Heidenheim 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.08 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights