Union Berlin 1-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 93%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 5.00 xG and FC Augsburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Augsburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 5.329 / away 1.050. Data: 0 Union Berlin games / 0 FC Augsburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 93% | Draw 5% | FC Augsburg 2%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.08 | Draw 20.00 | FC Augsburg 50.00. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (93%) — a 91pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 94% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 6.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 94% — a total xG of 6.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (5.00 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 93% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 6.03 combined xG gives a 94% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 93% | Draw 5% | FC Augsburg 2% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 94% | BTTS 64% | xG Union Berlin 5.00 / FC Augsburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Augsburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 5.329 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (93%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
5.00
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
99%
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
85%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 September 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 93% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 2% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 94%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.85) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 5.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.85x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.5%. Close behind: 5-1 (6.5%), 4-0 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
93%
1.08
5%
19.69
2%
45.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Most likely
5 – 1
6.5%
Home win
4 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
5.00
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
6.03
1.03
FC Augsburg xG
1.08
93%
Home win
19.69
5%
Draw
45.45
2%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
94%
Over 2.5
1.06
6%
Under 2.5
16.67
85%
Over 3.5
1.18
15%
Under 3.5
6.67
72%
Over 4.5
1.39
28%
Under 4.5
3.57
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
1%
148.41
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 5.00 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.03 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 6.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 93%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Pre-Season
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 1-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 5.00 xG and FC Augsburg 1.03 xG, a combined 6.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 4.0 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 93% | Draw 5% | FC Augsburg 2%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 93%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 2% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 94%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 99% and landed. Over 3.5 was 85% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.