Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Augsburg (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Augsburg arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 2W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 4–0 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 60% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 66% | FC Augsburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.90 xG and FC Augsburg 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.944 / defence 1.282 | FC Augsburg attack 1.217 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.400. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Union Berlin games / 38 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 2.22. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Union Berlin 1.90 / FC Augsburg 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.944 / def 1.282 | FC Augsburg attack 1.217 / def 1.005 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
2.19
FC Augsburg xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 March 2027.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 34% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 4 | FC Augsburg 4W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.94) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.22x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
34%
2.93
21%
4.75
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
4.09
2.19
FC Augsburg xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.15
Clean Sheet
11%
8.89
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
4%
26.07
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Union Berlin and 2.19 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 10D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (14W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.32 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 5W 8D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Union Berlin, 68% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union Berlin and 74% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union Berlin's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.