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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and Bayern München share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin and Bayern München finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.03 xG and Bayern München 1.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Bayern München attack 1.39 / defence 0.73, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 20% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 57%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights