Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at : 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Bayer Leverkusen hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–4 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
It is worth noting that Bayer Leverkusen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 58% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.72 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.771 / defence 0.972 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.281 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.992 / away 1.401. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Union Berlin games / 40 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Union Berlin 1.72 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.771 / def 0.972 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.281 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.992 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 38% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 6W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.28x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
38%
2.61
22%
4.47
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.47
1.75
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.75 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 11D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 21W 9D 10L from 40 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 21W 9D 10L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.20 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Union Berlin, 70% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Union Berlin and 70% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union Berlin's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Union Berlin's matches and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.