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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Elversberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Elversberg 1-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.19 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 27% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 46%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 69%, 1. FC Heidenheim 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Elversberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights