SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees FC Augsburg travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Augsburg — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Augsburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.63 xG and FC Augsburg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.807 / defence 1.016 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 2.007 / away 1.401. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 SC Paderborn 07 games / 38 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.63 / FC Augsburg 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.807 / def 1.016 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / def 1.004 | league avg home 2.007 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.17
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.36
1.73
FC Augsburg xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.73 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 9D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (14W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.89 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 79%, FC Augsburg at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Paderborn 07 and 74% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.