SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees FC Augsburg travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.60 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and FC Augsburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Augsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.68 xG and FC Augsburg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | FC Augsburg attack 0.972 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 FC Augsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 33%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | FC Augsburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.68 / FC Augsburg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | FC Augsburg attack 0.972 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.93
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.17
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.50 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 9D 8L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.31 PPG from 35 outings (13W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 17%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 82%, FC Augsburg at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 71% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 65% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 71% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.