SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 39%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 3D 1L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SC Paderborn 07's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and Eintracht Frankfurt 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.84 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.211 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 35 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 38% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.84 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.211 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 38% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.86x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.21x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
38%
2.64
23%
4.31
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.71
1.86
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.86 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 9D 8L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (11W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.83 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 74%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for SC Paderborn 07, 88% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 71% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 88% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.