SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 1.10 PPG clear of SC Paderborn 07 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus Borussia Dortmund 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | Borussia Dortmund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 0.82 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.670 / defence 0.948 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.380. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 42 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 23% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.04. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 23% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG SC Paderborn 07 0.82 / Borussia Dortmund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.670 / def 0.948 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 23% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.67x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.02x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
23%
4.36
28%
3.52
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.15
1.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.33 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 20W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 27W 10D 5L from 42 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Paderborn 07.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 7D 3L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.90 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
1
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 71%, Borussia Dortmund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 52% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 52% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.