SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Bayer Leverkusen at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.70 (Bayer Leverkusen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 58% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.51 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.712 / defence 1.031 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.149 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.358. SC Paderborn 07's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 9 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 43.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.77 | Draw 4.22 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.51 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.712 / def 1.031 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.149 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.71) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 9 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
36%
2.77
24%
4.22
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.12
1.61
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.61 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 20W 12D 11L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 22W 9D 12L from 43 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.67 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 22 home games (12W 4D 6L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 5D 7L from their last 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.05 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.82 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.59 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 23%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 73%, Bayer Leverkusen at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Paderborn 07 and 73% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 91% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 27
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →