SC Freiburg 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Schwarzwald-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Werder Bremen are 0.67 PPG clear of SC Freiburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.33). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Werder Bremen in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 67% and Werder Bremen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 67% | Werder Bremen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.36 xG and Werder Bremen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.878 / defence 1.110 | Werder Bremen attack 1.030 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.385. Data: 3 SC Freiburg games / 3 Werder Bremen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Werder Bremen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 67% | Werder Bremen 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Freiburg 1.36 / Werder Bremen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.878 / def 1.110 | Werder Bremen attack 1.030 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Werder Bremen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 October 2020 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 30% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.88) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.03x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.21
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.58
Werder Bremen xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.58 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Freiburg, 67% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Freiburg and 67% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen in 33%; SC Freiburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of Werder Bremen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen finished level at 1-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.36 xG and Werder Bremen 1.58 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 67%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.