SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 36%, yet in-form SC Freiburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Schwarzwald-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 September 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Freiburg — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.956 / defence 1.150 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.636. Data: 1 SC Freiburg games / 1 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 66% | xG SC Freiburg 1.53 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.956 / def 1.150 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.636 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.60
VfL Wolfsburg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 33% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.96) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
33%
2.99
30%
3.32
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.13
1.60
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.60 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. SC Freiburg's scoring rate against VfL Wolfsburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 0%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have SC Freiburg or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 0% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 0% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.53 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 100%, VfL Wolfsburg 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.