SC Freiburg 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.10 for VfL Bochum. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 46% versus VfL Bochum 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | VfL Bochum 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.17 xG and VfL Bochum 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.933 / defence 0.923 | VfL Bochum attack 0.709 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.907 / away 1.406. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 SC Freiburg games / 41 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 66% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 14%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | VfL Bochum 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SC Freiburg 40% | VfL Bochum 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 66% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Freiburg 2.17 / VfL Bochum 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.933 / def 0.923 | VfL Bochum attack 0.709 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.907 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
VfL Bochum xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 66% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
Record (4 meetings): SC Freiburg 3W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.93) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.71x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.03
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.09
0.92
VfL Bochum xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
2%
61.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.92 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 20W 9D 12L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum's form line: 10W 9D 22L from 41 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 5D 13L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.10 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 10W 9D 22L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.55 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 50%, VfL Bochum 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SC Freiburg) and 55% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 35% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 55% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.17 xG and VfL Bochum 0.92 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against VfL Bochum attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 66% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 14%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 51%, VfL Bochum 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.