SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.60 PPG lead over Union Berlin (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Berlin, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Union Berlin winning.
It is worth noting that Union Berlin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 64% and Union Berlin 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 69% | Union Berlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.83 xG and Union Berlin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.226 / defence 1.000 | Union Berlin attack 0.751 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 SC Freiburg games / 42 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 74% | Draw 15% | Union Berlin 11%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Union Berlin 9.09. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.83 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 74% | Draw 15% | Union Berlin 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 61% | xG SC Freiburg 2.83 / Union Berlin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.226 / def 1.000 | Union Berlin attack 0.751 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union Berlin xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 74% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SC Freiburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 4 | Union Berlin 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.23) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.75x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.66
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.87
1.03
Union Berlin xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.66
15%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
6%
17.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
159.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.03 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 9D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (11W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.10 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 5D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.05 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for SC Freiburg, 50% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SC Freiburg and 55% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 50% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SC Freiburg's matches and 55% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.