SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees RB Leipzig travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Europa-Park Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour RB Leipzig, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for SC Freiburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 4–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 63% and RB Leipzig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 66% | RB Leipzig 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.33 xG and RB Leipzig 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / defence 0.962 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 SC Freiburg games / 35 RB Leipzig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | RB Leipzig 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | RB Leipzig 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | RB Leipzig 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 59% | Draw 21% | RB Leipzig 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Freiburg 2.33 / RB Leipzig 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.210 / def 0.962 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
RB Leipzig xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 59% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 6W.
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.21) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.80
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.66
1.33
RB Leipzig xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
10%
10.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
2%
50.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.33 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 14W 8D 13L from 35 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 9L across 35 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 10W 5D 2L from 17 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; RB Leipzig in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 5D 9L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.06 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.59 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SC Freiburg 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 82%, RB Leipzig at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Freiburg and 65% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Freiburg's games and 59% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Freiburg's matches and 65% of RB Leipzig's.
Do SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.