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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 2-2 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.17 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.09 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.37 / defence 1.30, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights