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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 1-3 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.67 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.05 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 30%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Eintracht Frankfurt 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.45 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights