🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park-Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

SC Freiburg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 5 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.027 / defence 0.845 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.797 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.397. Data: 56 SC Freiburg games / 56 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights