RB Leipzig 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Leipzig face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Werder Bremen travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Red Bull Arena, RB Leipzig have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Werder Bremen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of RB Leipzig: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Werder Bremen, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
RB Leipzig trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 55% and Werder Bremen 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 60% | Werder Bremen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.20 xG and Werder Bremen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.964 / defence 0.973 | Werder Bremen attack 1.121 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.251. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 RB Leipzig games / 31 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Werder Bremen 4.76. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG RB Leipzig 2.20 / Werder Bremen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.964 / def 0.973 | Werder Bremen attack 1.121 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
RB Leipzig 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen part of?
RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 55% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): RB Leipzig 3W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RB Leipzig's attack rating (0.96) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.21
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.57
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
11%
9.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
2%
42.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.36 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 34W 13D 18L from 65 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 23L across 65 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.77 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 22W 4D 6L from 32 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 15W 7D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.75 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 68%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 34W 13D 18L in their last 65 games (1.77 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Werder Bremen away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.19 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.62 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2021, when RB Leipzig won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
0
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 53%, Werder Bremen 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for RB Leipzig and 78% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RB Leipzig's games and 72% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of RB Leipzig's matches and 78% of Werder Bremen's.
Do RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.20 xG and Werder Bremen 1.36 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Werder Bremen attack 1.12 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 55% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 21%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 60%, Werder Bremen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.77 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.