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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.11 xG and Werder Bremen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Werder Bremen attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 25%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 57%, Werder Bremen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Leipzig's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.66 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights