RB Leipzig 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Leipzig face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Augsburg, with 3 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 60% and FC Augsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 63% | FC Augsburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.77 xG and FC Augsburg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.834 / defence 0.656 | FC Augsburg attack 0.818 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.630. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 RB Leipzig games / 38 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 56% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 15%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | FC Augsburg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 30% | FC Augsburg 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 56% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG RB Leipzig 1.77 / FC Augsburg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.834 / def 0.656 | FC Augsburg attack 0.818 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.630 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Augsburg xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 4 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 56% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (6 meetings): RB Leipzig 3W | Draws 3 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.50
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.65
0.88
FC Augsburg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
38.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.88 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 10D 7L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (11W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 11W 5D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 games (1.92 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.11 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.83 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 39%, FC Augsburg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Leipzig) and 67% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 61% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RB Leipzig's matches and 67% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.77 xG and FC Augsburg 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.83 / defence 0.66 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.25, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 56% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 15%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 63%, FC Augsburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.