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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sat 20 Sep 2025

17:30

Venue

Red Bull Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

RB Leipzig Win

52%

RB Leipzig

1.91

21%

Draw

4.71

27%

1. FC Köln

3.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

2 – 2

6.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.08

RB Leipzig xG

Total xG

3.52

1.44

1. FC Köln xG

52%
21%
27%
RB LeipzigDraw1. FC Köln

1.91

52%

Home win

4.71

21%

Draw

3.77

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

68%

Over 2.5

1.47

32%

Under 2.5

3.12

47%

Over 3.5

2.13

53%

Under 3.5

1.89

28%

Over 4.5

3.57

72%

Under 4.5

1.39

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.50

33%

BTTS No

3.02

Clean Sheet

24%

RB Leipzig

4.23

13%

1. FC Köln

8.00

Win to Nil

12%

RB Leipzig

8.10

3%

1. FC Köln

30.12

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.0 4.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2
1 6.1 8.9 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.3
2 6.4 9.2 6.6 3.2 1.2 0.3
3 4.4 6.4 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
4 2.3 3.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.079
λ Away (xG) 1.442
Total xG 3.521
League avg home goals 1.694
League avg away goals 1.641
RB Leipzig attack strength 1.075
RB Leipzig defence strength 0.866
1. FC Köln attack strength 1.015
1. FC Köln defence strength 1.142
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 3