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Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.16 xG and VfL Bochum 1.41 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.95 / defence 1.46 against VfL Bochum attack 0.70 / defence 1.33, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 54% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 24%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 65%, VfL Bochum 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights