Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.10x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.21.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
13%
7.50
23%
4.31
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.17
2.21
RB Leipzig xG
7.50
13%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
11%
9.08
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
1%
68.06
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.21 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.