Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfL Wolfsburg are 0.80 PPG clear of Hertha BSC in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, VfL Wolfsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 80% and VfL Wolfsburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.97 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.726 / defence 1.380 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.780 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.355. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Hertha BSC games / 5 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.76 | Draw 2.94 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.22. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Hertha BSC 0.97 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.726 / def 1.380 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.780 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
VfL Wolfsburg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 21% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 45% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.73) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.78x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
21%
4.68
34%
2.95
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.46
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.68
21%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
5%
20.16
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.46 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 0D 4L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Hertha BSC's scoring rate against VfL Wolfsburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 60%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 4D 0L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Hertha BSC, 60% for VfL Wolfsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Hertha BSC) and 20% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 40%; VfL Wolfsburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hertha BSC's games and 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 20% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.97 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.46 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.73 / defence 1.38 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 34% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 80%, VfL Wolfsburg 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.