Hertha BSC 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Hertha BSC's favour (3.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.75 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.654. Data: 1 Hertha BSC games / 1 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 25 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Hertha BSC 1.75 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.654 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 September 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Hertha BSC 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 39% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (0.85x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.50
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.37
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.62 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Hertha BSC's scoring rate against Eintracht Frankfurt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-4 on 5 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hertha BSC's games and 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 0% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hertha BSC 1-3 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.75 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 39% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 100%, Eintracht Frankfurt 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.