Hertha BSC 2-5 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiastadion Berlin plays host to Hertha BSC versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 1.00 PPG across 7 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.86 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion Berlin this season.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 5W 0D 2L across 7 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.14 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 1.14 PPG clear of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 71% versus Borussia Dortmund 14%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 71% | Borussia Dortmund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.86 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.732 / defence 1.242 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.728 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.480. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Hertha BSC games / 7 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 20% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 44%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 5.00 | Draw 2.78 | Borussia Dortmund 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 67% | Borussia Dortmund 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 20% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Hertha BSC 0.86 / Borussia Dortmund 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.732 / def 1.242 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.728 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Hertha BSC 2 - 5 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 20% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 44% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.73x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.73x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
20%
4.91
36%
2.80
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.34
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.91
20%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
18.75
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.34 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 5W 0D 2L from 7 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.14 scored and 0.71 conceded. Hertha BSC's scoring rate against Borussia Dortmund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 14%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.33 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 2-5 on 21 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Hertha BSC) and 0% (Borussia Dortmund) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Hertha BSC and 0% for Borussia Dortmund.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 67%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 33% of games; Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 0% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 0% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Hertha BSC 2-5 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.86 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.34 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 20% | Draw 36% | Borussia Dortmund 44%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 71%, Borussia Dortmund 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.