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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Werder Bremen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat Werder Bremen 3-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.56 xG and Werder Bremen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Werder Bremen attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | Werder Bremen 31%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 70%, Werder Bremen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.54 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights