Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC Augsburg travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 64% versus FC Augsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 66% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.805 / defence 1.000 | FC Augsburg attack 0.824 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.393. Data: 27 Hamburger SV games / 61 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Hamburger SV 1.43 / FC Augsburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.805 / def 1.000 | FC Augsburg attack 0.824 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 43% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.81) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.78
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
FC Augsburg xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.15 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 20D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 61 outings (20W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 13W 11D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.11 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 23W 20D 18L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Augsburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 67%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hamburger SV and 60% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hamburger SV's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hamburger SV's matches and 60% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 28, as Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.