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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.35 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.29 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 51% | Draw 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 71%, Eintracht Frankfurt 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.54 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights