FSV Mainz 05 1-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart meet at OPEL ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 September 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.00 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.00 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, VfB Stuttgart in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.67 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.795. Data: 1 FSV Mainz 05 games / 1 VfB Stuttgart games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 38%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.67 / VfB Stuttgart 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.795 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 September 2020 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 34% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.97) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.85x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.42
1.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.75 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.00 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 1-4 at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.67 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.75 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 34% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 38%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 100%, VfB Stuttgart 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 0.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.