FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 5W 4D 1L at MEWA ARENA — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in FSV Mainz 05's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Union Berlin hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Berlin have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 59% versus Union Berlin 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 44% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.70 xG and Union Berlin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.011 / defence 0.852 | Union Berlin attack 0.822 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.476. Data: 34 FSV Mainz 05 games / 34 Union Berlin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 51% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 21%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Union Berlin 4.76. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but FSV Mainz 05 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FSV Mainz 05 50% | Union Berlin 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 51% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.70 / Union Berlin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.011 / def 0.852 | Union Berlin attack 0.822 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union Berlin xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 51% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 4W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.82x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.56
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.74
1.03
Union Berlin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
26.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.03 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 14D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (9W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. Union Berlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.97 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 0.59 points per game from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.97 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Pre-Season
Union Berlin
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 7W 14D 13L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.35 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 47%, Union Berlin 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (FSV Mainz 05) and 35% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 29% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 35% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 1, as FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.70 xG and Union Berlin 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 51% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 21%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 44%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.03 PPG, Union Berlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.