FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as FSV Mainz 05 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Mewa Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mewa Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (FSV Mainz 05) versus 1.80 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 62% and SC Paderborn 07 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 53% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.927 / defence 1.051 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.885 / away 1.445. Data: 34 FSV Mainz 05 games / 0 SC Paderborn 07 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.01 / SC Paderborn 07 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.927 / def 1.051 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.885 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 54% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.93x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.60
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.30
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
3%
30.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.29 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 10D 14L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. FSV Mainz 05 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.82 PPG from 34 outings (18W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Pre-Season
SC Paderborn 07
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 8D 8L in their last 34 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
0
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 1 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 59%, SC Paderborn 07 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FSV Mainz 05) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 2.0 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 24%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 53%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.