FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.82) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.88
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.25
1.14
1899 Hoffenheim xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.14 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.