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FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen – Predictions

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Sat 14 Dec 2024

17:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Werder Bremen Win

25%

FC St. Pauli

4.02

34%

Draw

2.94

41%

Werder Bremen

2.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

13.2%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

0 – 0

10.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.98

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

2.30

1.32

Werder Bremen xG

25%
34%
41%
FC St. PauliDrawWerder Bremen

4.02

25%

Home win

2.94

34%

Draw

2.43

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.04

51%

BTTS No

1.96

Clean Sheet

27%

FC St. Pauli

3.73

37%

Werder Bremen

2.68

Win to Nil

7%

FC St. Pauli

15.02

15%

Werder Bremen

6.49

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.0 13.2 8.7 3.8 1.3 0.3
1 9.9 13.0 8.5 3.8 1.2 0.3
2 4.8 6.4 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.2
3 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.984
λ Away (xG) 1.317
Total xG 2.301
League avg home goals 1.659
League avg away goals 1.474
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.605
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.856
Werder Bremen attack strength 1.044
Werder Bremen defence strength 0.981
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 13 / 47