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Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 0-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.75 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.23 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 36%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 41%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights