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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC St. Pauli and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.01 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.61 / defence 0.90 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.21 / defence 1.10, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 24% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 44%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.54 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights