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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sat 23 Aug 2025

17:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

32%

FC St. Pauli

3.16

26%

Draw

3.79

42%

Borussia Dortmund

2.38

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.0%

Away win

0 – 1

8.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.35

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

2.93

1.58

Borussia Dortmund xG

32%
26%
42%
FC St. PauliDrawBorussia Dortmund

3.16

32%

Home win

3.79

26%

Draw

2.38

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.67

40%

BTTS No

2.48

Clean Sheet

21%

FC St. Pauli

4.85

26%

Borussia Dortmund

3.85

Win to Nil

7%

FC St. Pauli

15.33

11%

Borussia Dortmund

9.18

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 8.5 6.7 3.5 1.4 0.4
1 7.2 11.4 9.0 4.7 1.9 0.6
2 4.9 7.7 6.1 3.2 1.3 0.4
3 2.2 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.348
λ Away (xG) 1.580
Total xG 2.928
League avg home goals 1.677
League avg away goals 1.566
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.794
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.914
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.104
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 1.012
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34