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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG and Werder Bremen 1.80 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 30% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 46%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, Werder Bremen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights