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Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-4 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.95 xG and Werder Bremen 1.77 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.60 / defence 1.10 against Werder Bremen attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 56%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Werder Bremen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights