1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host VfL Wolfsburg at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 0.90 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 63% and VfL Wolfsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 51% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.832 / defence 0.903 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.038 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.452. Data: 43 1. FC Heidenheim games / 43 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 33% | VfL Wolfsburg 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 33% | VfL Wolfsburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.832 / def 0.903 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.038 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 33% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.83x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.01
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.70
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.36 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 13D 17L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 12W 10D 21L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.21 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 12W 10D 21L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.43 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 52% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 33% | VfL Wolfsburg 34%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 51%, VfL Wolfsburg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.21 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.