🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 32, as 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 xG and VfL Bochum 1.42 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against VfL Bochum attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 31% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 41%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, VfL Bochum 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.34 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights