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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 3-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.65 / defence 1.39 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.39 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 11% | Draw 17% | VfB Stuttgart 73%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 62%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights