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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 2-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Union Berlin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.70 / defence 1.24 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 32% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 37%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Union Berlin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Berlin's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.06 PPG, Union Berlin 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights